Themic — Real-time macro theme tracker

Themic is a macro theme tracker that distills curated financial research into a live, source-cited ledger of the market narratives driving cross-asset positioning — built for discretionary futures traders. Each theme carries a running thesis, a dated development timeline with attributed sources, escalation / de-escalation scenarios, and the exposed instruments.

Tracking 14 live themes · last updated 2026-07-14 · open the live dashboard →

Live themes

• Iran US Hormuz
  First desensitization sign — energy/equities reacting less than prior escalations; Brent +9.4% Mon (biggest since 2020) then +3.2% more, back >$80; $90 target now in play.
• FED Warsh Overhaul
  NFIB June 97.4 vs 95.8 cons — first hard-data hawkish beat ahead of today's CPI + Warsh testimony; front-end/SR3 exposed to the print.
• UK Political Risk Burnham
  Gilt >5.0% breach confirmed; UK 10y +4bp more, worst major curve today (Germany +1bp, Italy +3bp), into tonight's Mansion House — 6B fiscal-credibility channel live.
• AI Tech Exceptionalism
  Nasdaq100 -1.88% vs S&P -0.79%, widest AI-specific drag, on SK Hynix debut crash; big-bank Q2 earnings today, TSMC/Netflix Thu.
• Gold Safe Haven Debate
  Broken-haven read deepens — gold -1.5%, silver -2.0% into Iran escalation while copper holds >$6.00/lb; real yields dominate the metals.
• BoJ JPY Intervention
  Katayama floats adding JGBs to NISA + GPIF review — 2nd demand channel; 20y auction b/c 4.52 vs 2.97; read as quasi-official support substituting for overdue BOJ hike.
• CB Divergence Monitor
  Iran energy shock reframed as pushing ECB/BoE/BoJ/Fed hawkish TOGETHER — ECB +25bp bias, BoE may drop 'look-through', BoJ Oct hike ~65%; euro/US yields +10bp last wk.
• Food Fertilizer Squeeze emerging
  Week 28 US corn conditions improved to 68% G/E, yield +1.3 to 184.7 bu/ac, y/y shortfall narrowed 3rd week — undercuts the Hormuz-fertilizer bull framing.
• US China AI Export Gap emerging
  FT sharpens scoop: OpenAI/Google models reaching Pentagon-BLACKLISTED Chinese buyers directly — regulatory tail-risk on US AI megacaps. ES.
• Ukraine Russia Escalation declining
  Ankara summit: Trump lets Ukraine manufacture Patriots domestically (bigger pro-Kyiv pivot than expected); UK/FR/DE launch $50bn independent strike-weapons plan.
• USD Dollar Regime declining
  Long-USD consensus holds on hawkish minutes (DXY 101.10) vs macro commentators bear case ('oil a sideshow'); EM FX softens on 'ceasefire over'. No resolution into CPI.
• Europe Defense Buildout declining
  UK/FR/DE launch $50bn independent long-range-strike initiative + US lets Ukraine make Patriots — European defense-autonomy/fiscal-spend step. 6E/European rates channel.
• France Political Fiscal Risk declining
  Appeal court cleared Le Pen to run in 2027; she confirmed candidacy on TF1. RN challenge now hard-dated — builds 2027 event-risk premium into 6E / OAT-Bund.
• ECB Tpi Periphery Put declining
  Independent research argues ECB's TPI is a standing 'ECB put' artificially compressing BTP-Bund spreads since 2022 (vs BoE's temporary gilt fix); Germany has lost its ECB voice.

Methodology

Every trading day, Themic reads a curated set of macro research sources and updates a persistent ledger: it detects the narratives directing attention, tracks whether each is building, persisting or fading, records what changed with attributed sources, and maps the exposed futures. It never voices its own directional call — a view appears only when a named source is cited. Attention is corroborated against independent, market-wide signals, not just the ledger's own read.