Themic — Real-time macro theme tracker

Themic is a macro theme tracker that distills curated financial research into a live, source-cited ledger of the market narratives driving cross-asset positioning — built for discretionary futures traders. Each theme carries a running thesis, a dated development timeline with attributed sources, escalation / de-escalation scenarios, and the exposed instruments.

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Tracking 15 live themes · last updated 2026-11-10

Live themes

• FED Rate Path
  CPI-day split: ING says a 0.3% core keeps FOMC hawkish (USD/front-end UST support); macro commentators says FOMC turns dovish post-midterms regardless of CPI, unpriced.
• Iran US Hormuz
  Brent ~$91-92 (lowest since Sept) on 'positive momentum'; ING flags oil-to-rates pass-through weakening, focus rotates to CPI/second-round inflation.
• Equity Fragility Concentration
  AI rebound extends (SOX +7%); ING/Lloyds lean benign ('jitters not downturn', AI capex ~5.3% GDP). Nvidia FBI/legal-probe + Anthropic $69bn IPO supply the live risks.
• US Midterm Positioning
  Democratic sweep now the common upstream driver: macro commentators ties it to a dovish post-midterm Fed regime AND to Tehran's greater willingness to concede on Iran.
• USD Dollar Regime
  DXY -0.7%; ING 'Power Play' calls USD 'as good as it gets' near term, turning lower next spring; EUR/USD stabilising 1.120-1.125, YE target 1.130.
• China Policy Stimulus
  China Oct exports +35.2% y/y (semis +137%, hi-tech +66.6%), AI-driven; surplus $105bn a 6-month low but 2026 on track for a record. Crude import volume -13.3%.
• ECB Hiking Stagnation
  ING: lower oil may pull ECB pricing dovish vs the Fed (EUR-negative at margin) as oil-to-rates pass-through weakens; French risk the cap. Lane speaks today.
• Global Long End Selloff
  Barth: divided government = weaker fiscal consolidation, bearish duration/steeper curve — opposing Capital Wars' duration-bullish midterm take.
• Gold Safe Haven Debate
  macro commentators models gold/silver strongly inverse to Brent since 10 Sep; gold +1.1% (~4,108), silver +1.5% on the oil drop.
• RBA Oil Hike Repricing
  NAB confidence -15 (bottom 5%), forward orders weakest since pandemic; AUD +0.9% to ~0.6930 on oil/risk, 0.68s support.
• Nordic Swiss CB Path
  Norway CPI-ATE cooled to 2.7% (from 3.0%); Norges Bank (4.50%) read as on a prolonged pause, softening the Nordic hike-later leg.
• UK BoE Hike Path
  BoE's 4.9% peak-CPI forecast assumed Brent >$115 — partly stale after the $20 oil drop; Dec hike ~45-50%, Lloyds leans Feb. UK CPI 18 Nov the Dec swing.
• France Political Fiscal Risk
  Biggest French protests since Sept + real private-sector wages -1.1% y/y Q3; ING names France as the one thing that could stop an ECB Dec hike. LFI unveils 2027 programme.
• BoJ Yen Policy
  Record Sep wages (3.1% y/y, real +2.2%) back the LB Macro Dec BoJ-hike call; yen still not a haven as Nikkei -6.2%, JGB 10Y -8bp to 2.68%.
• Global Liquidity Conditions declining
  Capital Wars: liquidity slipped again (stronger USD, weaker Fed liquidity, ECB/BoJ QT) with EM/LatAm exposure cut; the common driver of metals/EM/credit stress.

Theme archive

Formerly tracked themes, preserved with their dated, source-cited ledgers.

• Diesel Refining Shock dormant since 2026-10-31
• Europe Cost Of Living Unrest dormant since 2026-10-31
• US Housing Weakness dormant since 2026-10-30
• Brazil Election Brl dormant since 2026-10-27
• Defensive FX Rotation dormant since 2026-10-24
• Ukraine Russia Escalation dormant since 2026-10-23
• Europe Sovereign Fiscal Stress dormant since 2026-10-16
• EM Index Status Risk dormant since 2026-10-16
• US Trade War Reescalation dormant since 2026-10-12
• Corn Crop Conditions dormant since 2026-10-12
• Canada Labour Weakness dormant since 2026-10-12
• Copper Industrial Metals dormant since 2026-10-09
• UK GDP Growth Resilience dormant since 2026-10-08
• US Diesel Export Ban dormant since 2026-10-05
• AI Tech Exceptionalism dormant since 2026-10-01
• US China G2 Summit dormant since 2026-09-28
• Germany Ifo Afd Political Risk dormant since 2026-09-25
• Turkey Fund Industry Crisis dormant since 2026-09-22
• Wheat Hrw Supply Shock dormant since 2026-09-21
• ECB Tpi Periphery Put dormant since 2026-09-21
• K Shaped US Consumer dormant since 2026-09-16
• China Growth Pmi Contraction dormant since 2026-09-16
• UK Political Risk Burnham dormant since 2026-09-11
• Private Credit Stress dormant since 2026-09-10
• US Fiscal Deficit Supply dormant since 2026-09-05
• Eurozone Growth Resilience dormant since 2026-09-04
• Corn Belt Crop Stress dormant since 2026-09-02
• Korea Won Bok dormant since 2026-08-27
• EM Carry Trade Revival dormant since 2026-08-25
• G4 Growth Reacceleration dormant since 2026-08-24
• Europe Equity Rerating Vs US dormant since 2026-08-21
• FED Warsh Overhaul dormant since 2026-08-17
• China USD Funding Stress dormant since 2026-08-12
• Rhine Drought German Industry dormant since 2026-08-11
• UK Labour Market Turn dormant since 2026-08-10
• Wall Street Cyberattack dormant since 2026-08-06
• Long End Stagflation Breakout dormant since 2026-08-02
• USD Debasement Trendline dormant since 2026-08-02
• Japan Jgb Yield Cap dormant since 2026-07-26
• FED Forward Guidance Retreat dormant since 2026-07-21
• Climate Inflation Risk dormant since 2026-07-21
• Russia Baltic Shadow Fleet dormant since 2026-07-20
• US Regional Bank Stress dormant since 2026-07-19
• China Reflation PPI dormant since 2026-07-18
• AI Ipo Honeymoon Fade dormant since 2026-07-16
• US Bank Stress Test Capital Return dormant since 2026-07-15
• CB Divergence Monitor dormant since 2026-07-15
• BoJ JPY Intervention dormant since 2026-07-14
• Food Fertilizer Squeeze dormant since 2026-07-14
• US China AI Export Gap dormant since 2026-07-11
• Europe Defense Buildout dormant since 2026-07-09
• US Growth Trajectory dormant since 2026-07-06
• Commodity Signal Divergence dormant since 2026-07-03
• Eurozone Disinflation Heatwave dormant since 2026-07-02
• Market Structure Fomo Bubble dormant since 2026-06-28
• US Recession Probability dormant since 2026-06-28
• Asian FX Undervaluation dormant since 2026-06-27
• Europe Heatwave Energy dormant since 2026-06-27
• Europe Deindustrialisation dormant since 2026-06-27
• Tariffs Forced Labor dormant since 2026-06-26
• Ipo Boom Cycle dormant since 2026-06-26
• Stock Bond Correlation Breakdown dormant since 2026-06-25
• US China Supply Chain Escalation dormant since 2026-06-25
• Venezuela Debt Restructuring dormant since 2026-06-24
• Running Hot Regime dormant since 2026-06-24
• Tokyo Financial Centre dormant since 2026-06-22
• EM Currency Stress dormant since 2026-06-19
• Global Tightening Cycle dormant since 2026-06-18
• Equity Risk Premium Inversion dormant since 2026-06-18
• AI Geopolitical Fragmentation dormant since 2026-06-18
• Risk Sentiment Regime dormant since 2026-06-17
• White Collar Labor Overhang dormant since 2026-06-16
• Cuba Geopolitical Tail dormant since 2026-06-14
• US Regional Security Portfolio dormant since 2026-06-13
• US NATO Fragmentation dormant since 2026-06-12
• PPE Medical Supply Chain dormant since 2026-06-12
• Grains El Nino dormant since 2026-06-11
• UK Brexit Reengagement dormant since 2026-06-09

Methodology

Every trading day, Themic reads a curated set of macro research sources and updates a persistent ledger: it detects the narratives directing attention, tracks whether each is building, persisting or fading, records what changed with attributed sources, and maps the exposed futures. It never voices its own directional call — a view appears only when a named source is cited. Attention is corroborated against independent, market-wide signals, not just the ledger's own read.